GfK’s Emma Wade provides a market update and reviews the performance of the R129 (i-Size) classification car seat.
At the start of 2023, the total Baby Care market was performing well in value terms. January saw value up 7% versus the same period last year, and that’s 11% up on the last 12 months. Some of this growth is coming from increasing prices, which are up 15% from 2022. However, the market is not faring as well in volume terms which was down 7% in January when compared to January 2022. This is a fall of 1% compared to the last 12 months (February 2022-January 2023 vs February 2021-January 2022).
How are car seats performing?
Car seats look set to suffer from this drop in volume sales, as in January we recorded a 12% fall which was impacting value growth. The latter was up only 2% despite the average price for a car seat jumping 15% year on year. It is a similar story when looking at the 12 month trend. Here volume is down 5% but value was only able to grow by 3%.
The move from R44 to R129 (i-Size)
This drop in volume recorded at a total level in car seats has not been experienced across all regulation models. The old style R44 style dropped in both volume and value over the last 12 months, while the newer R129 (or i-Size) has been slowly increasing in both volume and value. The biggest drop in units came in 2020 for the R44 regulation, and over the last 12 months, this trend has continued as volume fell a further 7% and value dropped 1%.
Just comparing January year on year gives a slightly different picture as volume posted bigger declines, down 12%, but the jump in average price of 18% boosted market value by 3%. Compared to the new R129 regulation car seat, the last 12 months has seen volume up 4% and value up 10%. Things are just as positive looking at January, as volume was up 4% but value remained stable at 0%. As a result, the R129 classification now accounts for 17% of units sold in the last 12 months, up from 6% five years ago, and 38% in value, up from 15% five years ago.
Online vs in-store
There are differences in where consumers shop for their car seats, with more R44 seats bought online while the R129 models sell better in-store. In the last 12 months, we’ve tracked sales of R44 models as they continue to decline, and even though online accounts for 55% of sales, this is a fall of 10% compared to the previous 12 months. In contrast, in-store sales for the R129 represent 57% of total volume for the R129 and enjoyed a 10% growth in the last 12 months.
For both regulation models, online purchases have become more common since the pandemic with R129 growing from 37% value in online sales pre-pandemic to 41% in the last 12 months. R44 has risen from 46% to 59%.
R129 bringing in a new premium
The new regulation R129 has also brought with it a new premium as the average price in the last 12 months is 210% higher than the average price for an R44 model. The premium price tag is not deterring buyers – even with the cost-of-living crisis. The difference in cost is even greater when comparing buying channels. A R129 car seat costs 10% more when purchased in-store versus online, and is 253% more expensive than an R44 bought in-store. Focusing just on the R44 classification, consumers will get a better deal in-store than online as the average over the last 12 months saw consumers paying an extra 17% online.
The outlook for 2023
The R129 will continue to grow in volume and value this year and the new regulation car seat will become more widely adopted. R44 sales will continue to drop as buyers convert to R129 models. With innovation continuing in the R129 range and with the impact of inflation, prices will also continue to rise throughout 2023. At a total level, expect car seat sales to drop with the continued decline of the R44.
